Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

Okay, hello everyone and welcome back.
My name is Greg Firman and this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of July the 21st, 2025.

Now, to get started this week, we’ll build on our intermarket correlations we discussed last week because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened. The idea here is that we get out in front of these moves and not get caught behind. So in last week’s presentation, I used multiple forex pairs and correlated markets to warn everybody of pending dollar strength coming.

PowerShares DB US Dollar IDN Bullish Fund ($UUP)

Now, we had a good move on the dollar last week, but using the bull fund, the UUP, we can also now assess we are failing in familiar territory. The high there is 27.51.

For this coming week, we have an MA diff, a very visual MA diff cross. The medium-term trend is weakening against the longer-term trend. So again, the immediate trend for this past week and the dollar has clearly been up, and we were way out in front of that. So in this particular week, it’s showing a corrective move lower. The continuation of dollar weakness will only happen if we can break down below the T-cross long at 27.24.

But I would prefer to see us break down below the quarterly opening. Again, as I mentioned in last week’s presentation, we are in the US fiscal fourth quarter. The dollar—this is usually one of the strongest periods of the US dollar. Now, albeit that is not predominantly until mid-late August into all of September. So, this rally could be a little bit premature. We’re below our calendar yearly opening price. The primary trend is clearly still down, but immediately there has been buying.

So, when we look at the indicators to start the week, the neural index is pointing down. We have an MAF cross, but our predicted RSI is above the 50, but it is weakening. So the way we would interpret this is that this is a corrective move unless we snap down below that T-cross long at 27.41.

Now, using some of the advanced features in the Vantage Point software, we can look at correlated markets that are currently driving that dollar strength in this particular quarter. Obviously, the Dollar Index at 95.18 is 95.18% positively correlated. So a 95% correlated market, WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bull Fund, is 93.18% positively correlated. ProShares Euro Short—again, positively correlated.

So if the dollar is going to resume its primary downtrend, then these inverse correlated markets like the British pound, the British pound/US dollar, and a number of different stocks on here, they’re all inversely correlated, meaning the dollar goes down. This section of the VP markets that are identified by the artificial intelligence—it’s saying these will go up. That’s the way we would look at that.

So, just a little sneak peek there of what’s coming in the upcoming VP seminar next weekend actually in Tampa. So, it’s just a little bit of a tease there to show you how neural networks really should be working. If a company or a product is using artificial intelligence, then it should be able to show these highly correlated markets, but also the highly inverse correlated markets to provide extra opportunities.

So right now, the Dollar Index remains the top correlated market, but when we look at it on a year-over-year basis, we can see that WisdomTree actually moves to the top at 96.87%.

So again, if the dollar can remain firm going into the early part of October, well, there could be a very good buying opportunity. And that’s why I’ve stated here that this is a corrective move until we can even break that T-cross long.

PowerShares DB US Dollar IDN Bearish Fund ($UDN)

Now, the bear fund—obviously, the UDN is under pressure here. So we look at it from an inverse standpoint. If the UUP goes up, this one goes down. So the T-cross long there is 18.69.

Once we’ve established where we are with the dollar—and the dollar basically affects all of our trades: oil, gold, stocks, even Bitcoin.

Gold/US Dollar

So right now, if we do a comparative to gold, gold still remains firm—sideways, albeit, but firm. But again, when we look at that right now, our T-cross long is 3373.85. We need to hold above that, but the quarterly opening price here, guys, is 3303. That tells us if the primary trend in gold is still in place. Our yearly opening price is 2607. Primary trend clearly is up—indisputable.

Then, when we look at current values like the quarterly and monthly opening price, and then apply the T-cross long, we can easily identify where we should be buying and where we shouldn’t be. So if we can hold above 3303 and 3370, a long remains in place. The VP indicators are actually supportive. The neural index, predicted RSI failing at the 50, and our predicted differences above zero—everything is looking still pretty decent for gold longs.

But again, I will continue to warn everybody into the end of September that we are coming into a period of known dollar buying. Remember, currencies aren’t like options or stocks or futures or any of these things. Nobody is required to buy any of those, but they are required to buy fiat currencies to settle trade balances, pay government employees—there’s real demand, at least for now, unless a digital currency takes over.

So gold remains sideways but still in its primary uptrend.

SPDR SPY ETF ($SPY)

Now, when we look at the primary stock market going into next week, using the SPY ETF to gauge that, we can see we remain above our yearly opening price. But the quarterly and the monthly opening price with the T-cross long—this is the way we would look at it, guys: if we can hold above that quarterly 616, and of course, the monthly is the same, but the T-cross long is now there also at 619.51.

So, yes, we’re at all-time highs here, guys, but it just seems like every time we attempt to short this stock market, it fails. The primary trend remains up. I’m a strong advocate also that a lot of the moves in the equity markets don’t make a lot of sense these days. But that is to do with the Fed—a lot to do with the Fed—and I believe the rhetoric between Trump and Powell is going to heat up next week going forward. Trump has been very clear that he is not in agreement with anything Powell is doing.

This past week, we had two former Fed members come out in full support of Trump’s position. Kevin Walsh, I believe, was one of them and was quite clear that he doesn’t know what kind of economics the Fed is following.

So just a little side note there, that Trump’s position is supported by a number of different Fed members, and I believe that will either push the dollar higher or sink it. So watch your media headlines on Monday here, guys. But for now, the stocks are looking pretty good.

Bitcoin

Now, with Bitcoin, we’ve kind of flatlined out here. We’ve had a big push up on the previous Monday and now we’ve set a new verified resistance high at 12,305. So now we’ve got to see—we’re going to see if we can retake that.

In my respectful opinion only, as I’ve mentioned multiple times on here, the bigger rally in Bitcoin is usually towards the mid-September point. So this could be a little bit of a premature rise. But again, there’s a lot of things going on with Bitcoin right now—legitimizing it, etc.

So, the primary trend is certainly up, but the VP indicators—as you can see, that MA diff cross—it gives us, with zero lag I might add, a very clear warning sign that something is a little bit off here.

So, if we look on a side note and say okay, what is really behind Bitcoin? What has really been driving this move at the beginning of the third quarter here?

Well, when we look at that on a quarterly basis, you can see that the ARKB fund, which is a very good ETF to be investing in Bitcoin, Fidelity, but you can see there’s a lot of crypto action here that is very highly correlated.

But if Bitcoin—if this is a false break higher in Bitcoin, then it would be very reasonable to suggest that these markets could be getting ready to move higher because they are inversely correlated.

So I just thought I would share a little bit of a teaser here going into the seminar—the summit—next weekend to show how artificial intelligence really works or should work using neural nets.

And if I look at the year-over-year correlation—and if Bitcoin is going to soften next week—then you have a number of different unrelated stocks here that could actually rise when Bitcoin moves lower. That’s starting at 88% inversely correlated all the way up to 97.73%—the ProShares Short Bitcoin.

So again, there’s opportunity on either side, guys. But always remember: if you’re using a real artificial intelligence, then somewhere in that program it should be able to show what is really driving the markets. It is quite fascinating—the deeper you dive into this.

But for now, Bitcoin is likely to come back down to its T-cross long at 114,799. That’s the area to keep an eye on. But I cannot rule out—and will not rule out—a retest of the quarterly opening and even the yearly opening price before the real Bitcoin rally really shows itself in September and October.

United States Oil ($USO)

Now, US oil here going into next week’s been a little bit choppy. But once again, to validate to everybody the power of using simplicity with AI, like the quarterly, the yearly opening price—right now, US oil came down, touched the quarterly opening price and went right back up to where we are now. And now it’s challenging the calendar yearly opening price and that price is coming in at 76.84.

So, if it’s going to fail, this is where it’s going to be, guys. However, if it’s going to move higher, that too would be right now. Last week I did show a positive correlation between oil and the dollar.

So if the dollar tanks, then it would be reasonable to suggest that oil would move lower too. But if the UUP can hold above that T-cross long—as I mentioned—that could be helping oil move higher, right?

So keep an eye on those levels. Right now, we don’t have downward momentum. I’m looking for a break of the 40 level on the predicted RSI and it’s simply not there, guys. Okay? So it’s holding firm, but be very careful with longs around the yearly opening price until we close above it. And I would respectfully submit: the real price, the real price, guys, will show itself mid-Tuesday morning.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, looking at the ProShares on the VIX side of things, the VIX is sitting right on its calendar yearly opening price. We’re below our T-cross long. The predicted differences are trying to push forward, but it can’t. And again, with a breakdown below the 50 and the 40 level on the predicted RSI, that is warning us that more downside pressure is likely on the VIX. So that’s indirectly supporting the global indices. So we’ll keep that in mind. But for now, it’s very, very shaky.

Now, for my good friends in Germany, we always want to make sure we’re looking at global indices here in an outlook. But I will remind everybody, this is not an options or an individual stock outlook. Vantage Point does have a Hot Stock Outlook. That’s where you would go for that. This is predominantly ETFs, commodities, and foreign exchange.

DAX

So when I look at the DAX, what I had warned last week is if that euro moves lower, it is going to likely pull the DAX down with it. Now that has happened. The primary risk this week is going to be the ECB rate announcement. That’s what you want to keep an eye on, which I believe is on Thursday. In most cases, it’s a buy the rumor, sell the facts. So they’re selling the euro leading into the ECB.

Yes, the ECB will probably cut, but what I’ve seen over the last five years with COVID and everything else, down is up and up is down. They’re not following any economic playbook that I’m aware of. So in most cases, when a country cuts rates, it should weaken their currency, but it’s actually strengthened the euro, which is bizarre, along with the Aussie, the Kiwi, even the Swiss Franc, and all of them.

So for now, again, whether the DAX moves higher or lower, I will give you a snapshot so you can see that maybe there are some alternatives. If you’re buying the DAX, maybe you want to buy some correlated markets. So on a year-over-year basis, there are some very strong—this is what is underneath the hood of the VP software—and these positively and inversely correlated markets provide nothing but opportunity, guys, for bigger traders and smaller.

Maybe you don’t want to spend $178 on a futures contract or an ETF on the DAX, but what about a correlated market like SAND that’s 98.32% correlated for $8.44? That opens the door to smaller traders.

And if the bigger traders want to go after Philip Morris International, \$178 a share—have at it. Whatever you want to do, guys, there’s always something. There’s always opportunity with intermarket analysis, right?

If the DAX tanks, then these markets down here—UNH, 91% inversely correlated—meaning if the DAX goes lower, these are going to go up. That’s on a year-over-year basis. And I’ll also show you the quarterly correlations here, right? And again, a lot of other opportunity can be had with this technology—real AI technology with neural nets.

So again, just a little side note there that I thought I would share with everybody. But for now, the DAX, to some degree, is going to be at the mercy of the euro and the ECB. What is the ECB‘s plan?

So again, I think they’re going to try and talk the currency down, but I think the market may actually want to buy the euro and the DAX versus the dollar and the S&P.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our main forex pairs here, guys, all eyes next week are going to be on the euro. I imagine it’s going to be somewhat flatlined ahead of that announcement. So for now, we know where our risk is, and that’s back at the quarterly opening at 1.1787.

There’s a very strong possibility we could be on our way back towards that area. As you can see, we have an MA diff cross pointing back to the upside. So if nothing else, a potential corrective move back towards that quarterly opening.

Now, if we can get above that, we’ve got a stronger long trade—potentially even this month or early next month into that 1.20 range. But there’s a lot of fundamental factors.

So we’re going to wait and see what the ECB has to say, what their plan is. Is Trump going to go off on the Fed again this week and weaken the dollar like he did this past Wednesday when he talked about firing Powell? That immediately caused the dollar to tank. That’s what you should be prepared for, guys—media announcements, right?

And one other thing that Kevin Walsh said last week, which I also found extremely fascinating, is the fact that he said that the Fed is blaming everybody but themselves for monetary policy—and the media is helping them. Those were his words, not mine. Very, very interesting stuff.

So right now, there is a warning sign here that the euro may not be as weak as what it appears to be

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U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, of course, the counterpart to that would be the US/Swiss Franc. Now, it had an interesting week this past week also. For the first time in a long time, trying desperately to close above that Vantage Point T-cross long.

So, the area you’re going to watch next week—again, this is an outlook, guys, not a recap of something that’s already taken place and being reviewed. We’re looking forward into next week. I like to emphasize that because sometimes there’s confusion. And no, this is for next week, guys. This outlook is being done while the financial markets are closed on Sunday morning at 10:30 a.m.—again, very important.

So, when I’m looking at this right now—while it looks bullish above the quarterly opening price and slightly above the T-cross long—the underlying markets are saying it’s not as strong as what it appears to be. So a little bit of a warning sign here. We could be moving higher in the short term or the near term. 82.16 is our verified resistance high, our next point. But we’ve got to hold above that—or rather, below that, I should say—for shorts.

If we’re going to go long on this one, guys, I think that I would need a break of this red zone up here. And I don’t think we’re going to get it—if we are going to get it—it’s going to be later into August and September. But anything is possible. But for now, again, it is showing weakness going into the start of the week.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the British pound taking a pretty strong beating last week. But again, we were out in front of it, as I discussed last week, warning of that dollar strength. With the G7 forex pairs, guys, you’re either buying dollars or selling dollars. That basically sums up the main part of the forex market.

So, the pound has a newly formed verified support low: 1.336. And I would respectfully submit that longs are reasonable on a corrective nature while that level holds. I believe that there could be buying around that level as early as Monday. But if the pound takes a big hit on Monday, chances are it’s going to reverse on Tuesday. So keep an eye on that.

The VP indicators are suggesting prices starting to rise. But with the predicted RSI in a situation like this, I don’t—nor would I ever—suggest it’s oversold, so I’m going to buy it. Because of that, I want the predicted RSI to rise above 50 to confirm that I’m out of this oversold zone—or, as I would call it, this weak zone—because I don’t believe in anything that’s related to overbought or oversold.

So again, if that level is rising here and I can get above 50, then that would be the time to buy. So watch your VP predicted RSI and utilize it in a way that is safer, I would argue, than trying to pick a bottom.

Okay. But again, there is a little bit of a corrective move higher for potentially next week.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the dollar/yen again—the rhetoric from the media this week on the CPI data, the PPI data—very, very misleading, to say the least. So, the carry trade guys want to stay long dollar/yen because they feel that the Fed is not going to cut because the media is suggesting the Fed won’t even cut in September. I believe they are dead wrong on that.

So again, two former Fed members came out and said: when you read the economics of this, the economy is not as strong. And they made very specific references to the labor market. They said, “Look, I don’t know where Powell is getting these numbers from, but it’s not strong.” So that’s their argument, not mine. I simply pass along what they have said.

Now, they could be jockeying for a position as the new Fed Chair too, right? So, we’ll see. But either way, we have a verified resistance high: 149.18. And I think the more the market looks at the incoming data—and always remember the CPI data we got this week, guys, that’s for last month, not this month—so the Fed’s, the media’s making a decision based on lagging data. You have to be careful.

But right now, the dollar/yen is showing that longs are very risky up here. And again, we have a new verified resistance high at 141.9. So if dollar/yen takes a big spike up on Monday, chances are Tuesday and Wednesday this thing’s going down. So watch it carefully. It’s mildly bullish—that’s all.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the Canadian dollar taking a bit of a hit this past week, but again, we’re out in front of it. I made the argument again last week that broad dollar strength appears to be pending.

So right now, again, that MA diff cross is warning us that maybe this market—the Canadian dollar—is not as weak as what it appears to be. So we are coming up into two very strong verified resistance highs: 1.3758 and the next one is going to be 1.3798.

So I would respectfully submit that shorts—there could be a trade there. But again, we don’t want to guess at this stuff. We have to have a reason why we would short this. And this is telling me that the medium-term trend against the longer-term trend is changing. So a corrective move back to our T-cross long, 1.3691, could open the door back to 1.3608.

And if that happens, guys, it’s going to be Monday—maybe early Tuesday. But if this takes a big spike up on Monday, I think you have a decent short Monday night or Tuesday morning. Because that’s the way this pair works. It’s very much all over the map on Monday and Tuesday. 80–90% of the time, the price on Monday on USD/CAD is not a true price. Tuesday is—and there’s always a reversal involved.

So be cautious with that.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Aussie and the Kiwi for next week—I believe that we could be getting ready for a buying opportunity here, but we need those stock markets moving higher: the NASDAQ, the Dow, all of them in the US moving higher because the Aussie has a very high correlation to that.

So right now, we’ve come screaming back on Friday. We’re closing at 0.6507, but we’re still below 0.6530. So we’ve got to get above that to get back up to our quarterly opening price at 0.6581. Once again, a warning sign that that’s happening.

Now, there’s a better demonstration of the predicted RSI. I would like to see that predicted RSI cross—excuse me—the 50 threshold, and that would tell me, okay, momentum is building and I’m coming out of—selling pressure is coming off the market. That’s the way I would like to say it. I don’t believe in overbought or oversold. I don’t believe in any of that. I’m looking to see if we’ve got buyers.

And if I can get above that 50, then it’s going to confirm that, yes, I do have buyers, and yes, I’m staying with the primary trend when I buy, because we’re above 0.6198.

Always remember to run your performance numbers, guys. Real performance comes from the calendar yearly opening price. That’s what we’re looking at.

So when they tell you—and I’ve seen this on numerous different websites—that the Aussie is in a big downtrend, there is nothing factual in that statement. It’s up 5.43% against the dollar currently. That does not equate to a downtrend, guys. It’s in an uptrend.

So this is a corrective move. But I will concede, the Aussie could struggle in the third quarter because of that dollar strength in their fiscal fourth quarter that ends October 1. Always keep that in mind, in the back of your head—that the dollar could simply strengthen on real demand for it, right?

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The Kiwi is going to be the same trade here. It’s a little softer for sure than the Aussie, but you can see that it spiked on Friday too. But we could see additional value on this one too.

And I do like the position of the predicted neural index. I’ve got my MA diff cross. All of this is warning, guys, of dollar weakness. But there are going to be fundamentals next week that could change that. The ECB, I think Powell is doing a speech on Monday or Tuesday—that’s going to be very volatile because of the conflict between him and Trump.

But with all of this stuff happening, guys, there will always be opportunity.

So with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of July the 21st, 2025.