Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

Okay, hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of June the 30th, 2025.

PowerShares DB US Dollar IDX Bearish Fund ($UDN)

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with the dollar index ETF. We’re going to focus more heavily on the bear side of this—the UDN. Now, the dollar taking a pretty substantial hit right across the board this past week, but there are a couple of anomalies there that I will discuss throughout the presentation here today that are very strange, to say the least.

So, with the bear fund, structurally it’s quite strong—above our yearly opening price, the quarterly, and the monthly—but we are at all-time highs at the end of the month during a period of known US dollar strength into that first week of the new calendar month of July. So again, we are entering into summer trading, but what I’m seeing with the neural index strength is that while this market is making new highs, the neural index strength is actually moving lower. That is something to keep your eye on next week because very often what happens in these markets with the dollar at the end of the month: they paint a very negative picture of the dollar, and then all of a sudden, mysteriously, it turns around at the very end of the month into the first week of the new month.

So the additional indicators in VP—we do have an MA diff cross that’s starting to form to the downside—and the predicted RSI. Both are showing that it’s losing momentum here.

Now, I anticipate with a holiday-short week next week—there’s a holiday: Canada Day, and I believe July the 4th in the US—so it will be a very volatile week again, and I think it’s going to start right out of the gate with the trade war heating up between Canada and the US.

So again, there are a number of warning signs. So with the bull fund, we would be looking at the same thing. We can see the neural index. The neural index is red, meaning down, but the neural index strength is actually getting ready to turn back up. So we may have a low in place for now. That would be 26.90. So keep an eye on that. There could be some opportunity coming up on that next week.

Gold

Now, gold prices remain pressured here, closing the week down below the current monthly opening price. This is normal at the end of the month, guys, for gold to be weaker, which is another warning sign potentially of dollar strength—some kind of dollar strength.

So again, we have the US payroll number. Keep a very close eye on that next week too because that could be a real game-changer for the dollar, potentially. Because we’re still looking at what the Fed is going to do with interest rates. Is he going to cut? And when? The market is pricing in two cuts. Well, maybe, maybe not. The Fed seems very reluctant to cut.

So, but in the meantime, gold is being pressured lower. Now, in most cases, gold rebounds after the non-farm payroll numbers. So the indicators in VP remain pretty negative on gold right now. But don’t forget, guys, what the primary trend is here—which is clearly up. The yearly opening price: 2607. But mainly the quarter is the one we want to keep our eye on here at 3124. And then, of course, on Tuesday of next week, we’re going to get a brand new monthly opening price, and that will be the focal point of next week’s presentation.

So, a little bit more downside with gold here, but be mindful that a reversal is very likely.

SPDR SPY ETF ($SPY)

Now, when we look at the SPYs going into next week—the SPYs being pushed to the upside here—but again, we really have to look at this and say, “Okay, is this a house of cards here?” Because there’s a number of fundamentals that don’t support long on equities. But that doesn’t mean the market won’t continue to buy it. But for now, I’m watching the contrarian indicators in VP very closely. They remain bullish—the predicted RSI breaking above the 60 level. We’ve got our predicted differences in actual trend-ready territory.

But once again, we’ve made an all-time new high. And when we did that over here on February the 19th, we had a very substantial drop. So again, the trade—the tariff war—is likely to heat up next week. The ceasefire is holding between Israel and Iran for now, but my optimism on that continuing to hold remains heavily guarded. A number of different things could push the stock substantially lower next week, so be cautious.

But for now, our main support levels are coming in at the TROSS long: 677, and the long predicted at 60813. Keep a very close eye on those two particular levels next week. We need to stay above them if we’re going to remain long at these very lofty levels.

Bitcoin ($BTC/USD)

Now, with Bitcoin, looking at Bitcoin, and again, the market is talking about the big rally in Bitcoin, but I would argue to some degree that it really isn’t that big, guys. It’s had a decent week last week, but it really is finishing rather soft. So, longs are still viable, I would argue. But is next week the time to buy Bitcoin? I would argue no, it’s not—but potentially the week after the non-farm payroll number.

So our TCROSS long here is coming in at 105,577. I do anticipate that that level could be breached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. And if it does, then that tells us we are moving lower in the near term. So again, watch that TCROSS long level of 105,577 very closely.

United States Oil ($USO)

Now, with light sweet crude going into next week—everybody’s talking about the selloff in oil. Now, we have hit some very significant levels up here, and it has sent oil lower. But again, we still remain positive on the month. And this is why we want to make sure we’re not moving that monthly price around to a random 20 days, 15 days, 30 days. We want to keep it on the current month, and this is going to reset on Tuesday. So wherever the price closes on Monday, that is likely going to be your new month—that will be your new monthly—unless there’s a small gap during the close. But that will be your monthly opening price for July, and that’s the level we want to focus on.

So I’m watching these VP indicators very closely on the contrarian side, whether we can turn around and move back up. And I suspect we can. So keep an eye on this area down here at least until Tuesday at \$69.99. But I think a reversal in oil is imminent.

$DAX

So, when we do a cross-reference to the German equity markets, when we look at the European—excuse me again—I’ve been a strong bull for my German friends on this one. We’ve had a good buying opportunity off the yearly opening price back here, but a new long is starting to show itself. But again, all-time new highs, guys—we need to be careful up here, especially next week.

But if we can hold above our TCROSS long at 4412 and our long predicted at 4441, then we could extend higher. But in most cases, it could be a struggle to push higher than 4522. But it remains possible here, guys—absolutely.

But keep an eye on the Euro US forex pair, which I’ll discuss in a minute here, because it is affecting this to some degree right now. The euro and the DAX are very positively correlated to one another. So again, this is a kind of a new thing here. But our predicted differences—everything here—is saying the DAX remains bullish. But next week, be very cautious with the global equity markets.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, we also want to make sure we’re checking our VIX. Now, the VIX remains above its calendar yearly opening price—the ProShares VIXY. So for the VIX to truly be bearish, then it has to turn negative on the year. So again, could the VIX bounce next week? Yes, absolutely it could. There are a number of different things on the table right now that could send equities considerably lower, pushing this ETF higher.

So keep an eye on that very important yearly opening price: 4421, or a breach of the TCROSS long at 5012. Either one of those two areas would suggest that the VIX, the VIX ETF, or the VIX itself for that matter, is still likely to move higher. So we’ll keep an eye on that. But again, there’ll be no shortage of volatility going into next week—that’s for sure.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we come into some of our main forex pairs here, guys, all eyes will be on Euro US next week. Can the euro continue to advance? We’re now at, I believe, the highest level this year. So if we come back six months and we look at this, we are breaking—we broke—above the verified resistance high at 1.1631. So if the euro is going to move lower, then it would be next week.

So what we can do is keep a very close eye on the VP predicted high and predicted low—but more the contrarian side of these indicators—because once again, with the euro advancing two days in a row, the neural index is actually pointing down. The slope of that predicted neural index is saying in the short to medium term, the euro may not be as strong as what it appears to be.

But for now, yes, the trend is definitely up. But it could be a little more difficult for the euro to advance in July. But our key levels there: 1.1641, 1.1540. We know that the further we move away from 1.1540, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace back to it. So keep an eye on that level and watch your shorter-term indicators for next week.

Now, what’s very interesting here—with two currencies specifically that I’m going to discuss this week—is US Swiss Franc and US Japan.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, historically, even when the dollar has been weak across the board, that has had something usually to do with the equity markets like the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow going higher. So when those indices go higher, in most cases, what we’ve seen very clearly over many, many years is the Swiss Franc and the Japanese yen weaken. And that didn’t happen last week.

So it’s that type of intermarket correlation you want to be mindful of. So yes, it’s painting a very bearish picture here of this particular pair, but something is off here from an intermarket analysis component. Something is missing here. So I suspect they could be getting ready to buy dollars.

Now again, if a risk-on scenario—that doesn’t favor the yen or the Swiss Franc—and they’re both strengthening?

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

When we look at the dollar yen, I’m seeing something very similar. We see the yen dropping, but in most cases, the dollar yen would still be going up if the S\&P 500 is going up. So keep an eye on the reversal indicators, and I’m starting to see with dollar yen, we could be getting ready to turn back up.

But with US Swiss Franc, this one is very perplexing—why the Swiss Franc is so strong if it’s a risk-on environment. So is it really a risk-on environment for stocks, or is something else going on here? I’ll leave it there, guys, and let you decide. But if these two pairs keep going lower, that to me warns that potentially stocks could be getting ready to turn lower and the dollar could be getting ready to turn higher.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

So where does that leave the British pound in all this? Well, the British pound is pushed higher, but certainly not on fundamentals. It’s broad US dollar weakness. So if the dollar begins to turn next week, then good currency pairs to sell would be Euro US and pound dollar, and maybe buying US Swiss Frank, dollar yen—we’ll see.

But for now, do we have a top in place here at 1.3770? I believe that’s entirely possible. So keep an eye on that.

The indicators here—again, the beauty of a tool like the predicted neural index—is while this market is going higher, this tool is saying something is wrong there. The underlying correlated markets are not in agreement. So the neural index is pointing down while this market has been going significantly higher. So again, something that is just a little bit off here, guys—just to warn you.

So if we can’t make new highs above, I’m going to say, 1.38 next week—if we can’t get above 1.38—then there is going to be downward pressure on this particular pair. And if you add in a little bit of risk-off here—the ceasefire, the Fed, the tariffs—there’s plenty to go around here. So keep an eye on that.

But there could be a very good selling opportunity, even if it’s just a corrective move back to the T-Cross long at 1.3638 and 1.3561.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, when we look at our main risk-based currencies, that would be the Canadian dollar. Now, I can warn everybody that this pair is likely to go significantly higher out of the gate next week.

Now, the digital service tax—Trump has ended any kind of negotiations on the trade dispute. The trade war—that’s back on, guys. So that hurts the Canadian dollar. And the GDP coming out of Canada? Not really that great. Jobs numbers? Well, they’re not that great either.

So if the trade war heats up again, then the fundamentals of that could push this pair significantly higher. So again, keep an eye on it here. But that reverse check mark on the predicted RSI—if that RSI can get above the 50 mark and it continues to rise, that would push us through and probably send us back towards the 1.39 area. That’s where I would say.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Aussie is very similar. Aussie and the Kiwi are almost identical trades to the CAD—it’s just inverse. US Canada going down, Aussie US, New Zealand US going up—but they’re very susceptible to risk. So if everything comes apart at the seams next week, then you could very quickly see the Aussie and the Kiwi reverse.

So again, watch those shorter-term indicators, medium-term indicators. And what I’m seeing with the neural index throughout all of these forex pairs that I’ve looked at is that it’s saying the underlying strength isn’t there and that there could be a move coming—strengthening the US dollar.

So again, right now our main support: 0.6496. We are very close to that T-Cross long. Yes, the Aussie has had a good week, but it’s pushing at the end of the week—it’s pushing back down on that hotter PCE number out of the US, which is one of the Fed’s favorite gauges of inflation, right?

So, and the testimony with Powell last week—I think he made it quite clear—he’s not in any rush to cut rates here. That again favors the US dollar.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

So we’ll see how this one plays out, but watch that level very, very closely. And I would respectfully submit: maybe you want to take a look at Aussie New Zealand and back away from some of these G7 forex pairs until we get a better understanding of what the new trade deals look like and is the ceasefire really going to hold between Israel and Iran—and indirectly the US now is involved.

So we’ll see how this one plays out. But Aussie New Zealand—it is struggling again here below the yearly opening price, challenging the month. It’s barely going to be able to get above the monthly opening price. So again, this is warning us potentially of Aussie weakness coming. That’s the way I would see this using this cross pair.

But is there anything in the Kiwi that would tell us that maybe if we are going to buy either Aussie US or New Zealand US—I think it slightly favors New Zealand US for next week. But they would both drop if it’s against the US dollar.

So the Aussie New Zealand is simply an alternative for you guys to look at that may be a safer bet to some degree.

But again, we’re going to have a very choppy holiday-short week. There will be no shortage of volatility, guys. Just make sure that, above all else, you know your key levels.

So with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of June the 30th, 2025.