VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the Week of November 23, 2020
U.S. Dollar Index
Hello, everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 23rd, 2020. Now, to get started this week, we’re going to begin where we always do, with the U.S. Dollar Index. Now, as we can assess with the U.S. Dollar, definitely, it’s been under pressure here for numerous reasons, too many to even list here. But, again, we’ve got good verified support here. This is coming in at the 92.12. Additional support, which basically still puts us inside the three month range here. That low is coming in at 91.71. And the high for this particular range is currently sitting at approximately 94.79. We would need a significant break of one of these two levels to change this overall structure of the Dollar. Now, the Dollar does carry a slight bullish tone to it going into the last week of the month.
We normally see Dollar strength in the first week of that new month. Now, the biggest event risks coming this week is the U.S. Thanksgiving, the holiday on Thursday. And, of course, we have the Fed minutes on Wednesday before the market the U.S. markets close. So that should be interesting, watch out for that. But to begin the week, again, we want to watch this support level very closely currently at 92.18. When we click on our key VantagePoint level, our normal day-to-day trading predicted moving average, a break here of 92.49. We’re closing very, very close to this level. If we can break above this level, the Dollar should start trying to push higher. Now, in support of that right now, again, gold is stalling out here, but still within the overall, I’m going to call this the COVID range from now on, because we have two low points here, the verified support going back to September the 24th.
After that big announcement from Pfizer on the COVID vaccine, gold just plummeted. But, again, it stopped exactly on that VantagePoint verified support level, and then it’s recovered. However, it’s failing at that critical T-Cross Long. The T-Cross Long, the theory there, if it’s below it, we’re short. Above it, we’re long. But we always look at the overall range. So, for now, if we were to lose or break down below 1848, in my respectful opinion, that would trigger a mass exodus out of gold. But I’m not in that camp just yet here, guys. I think that gold is still holding on. It is definitely soft. There’s no question about it as the market becomes concerned. But again, a lot of the countries, including Canada, is going back into lockdown here. So if there is a vaccine, it’s not out yet. But again, Europe, Canada, parts of the U.S. COVID cases are still spiking and I believe that’s what will keep gold up.
But if an overall vaccine comes out and the cases, the curve starts flattening again, or the COVID just goes away altogether, then that’s not going to be a good thing for gold, not at all. But as we can assess here, and I will point out, we are still within the overall range, the medium-term crossing the longterm predicted difference with the Neural Index and a rising predicted RSI does suggest that gold is not done yet. If gold does have a large sell-off, then I would suspect that would probably be on Wednesday of this week, midday Wednesday. But either way, gold would be soft in the first week of the new month. Now, the high correlation between gold in the S&P 500 is indisputable since COVID first came onto the scene back in February and March. That’s when this correlation formed.
S&P 500 Index
But again, the S&P has had a bit of a down week here, but it’s still above that T-Cross Long 3517. When we click on our long predicted, you can see that again, we’re struggling to hold above this predicted moving average. The slope of it has gone completely neutral. So again, watch this level on the S&P, 3571. If we can retake this level, then we could be getting ready for another leg up. Wall Street, making some pretty outrageous calls, 4300 on the S&P. I’m not going to make those kinds of forecasts, because, again, in the current market environment that we’re in, there is no way to predict that far into the future. The vaccine could fail. COVID could blow up and it could spread even more. The death rates could go up. So I’m not going to jump on that bandwagon. I’m simply going to identify the key levels as identified in the VantagePoint software, and that will guide me through this. So again, if we’re holding below 3571, that’s not good. Stocks are likely moving lower.
If the slope of this blue line starts turning down, that’s another problem. But, again, what I’m seeing right here, guys, is that back here, way, way back here on November the 11th, basically, the VantagePoint software is saying that there is not a lot of upside left here, and it’s actually weakening. And you can see over the last six, seven, eight trading days, we’ve had little slight moves up on that COVID news, but then it just turns around and goes right back down again. So be very, very cautious.
But the one investment that I will again mention and speak to in this outlook is I’ve been a very strong advocate on Bitcoin, going back to mid-2018 when Buffet continued to say that Bitcoin was a scam, Bitcoin’s this. A lot of times, we want to ignore these types of comments and just study the charts. The benefit of using the VantagePoint software, these predicted moving averages, this actual big spike up, there are multiple times throughout this calendar year where VantagePoint has forecasted Bitcoin going higher.
And again, off this 11,000 mark, this is where they told us it was going to stop and go lower. Then they told us this again in these levels right here. And you can see that we held above this key T-Cross Long in the VantagePoint software this entire time, guys. So right now, 16,208. If we click on our F8 in the software, once again, that key pivot level, 17,619, I would absolutely anticipate that Bitcoin would retrace a little bit going into probably next week during that period of known Dollar strength. But that would give us the opportunity to potentially buy more. But, again, every time they’ve told us that Bitcoin, this is as high as it’s going to go, it has repeatedly gone higher. The same talking heads said the same thing about the S&P 500, and it continued to advance based around the VantagePoint forecast. So again, if we’re a student of chart study, then we would be looking at these charts and ignoring the noise and saying, “Look, Bitcoin is a very, very solid investment and right now it’s outperforming stocks, and it’s outperforming performing gold, and clearly outperforming the U.S. dollar.”
Now, oil for next week, once again, when we look at oil, we can see that T-Cross Long, 40.78. We’re holding up here, but again, oil really not doing much this year. If we look at it over a six month period, you can see here that after the summer, what we would have had for a summer driving season, we’ve come up. And that’s just slowly been working it’s way lower. So, again, my concern is if the S&P 500 sells off that oil is absolutely going to follow it. So watch this level up around the 43.70 mark for potential shorts this coming week.
Euro versus U.S. Dollar
Now, as we go into some of our main Forex pairs here, and from the outlook perspective for the week, we can see that resistance is building on the Euro here. And again, you’ve got some of the pundits that are very bullish on the Euro. I’m not in that camp at this particular time, until we get above the 1.20 level on this particular pair and stay above it.
We’ve got an early warning sign from VantagePoint, the medium term crossing the longterm predicted difference, that we’re struggling up here. So we want to see the Euro. If the Euro is truly bullish, it needs to get above 1.19. It needs to get above 1.20, and it needs to do it very, very soon. In the years past, based around the 20 plus years that I’ve been doing this, I have predominantly seen the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving to be one of the most volatile weeks for the Euro. So in my respectful opinion only, if the Euro is going to pop to either the upside of the downside, it is probably going to be by the middle of this coming week. Now, again, watch your predicted moving average. By itself, the long predicted, if we start holding below 1.1854, then the bias would clearly be to the downside.
British Pound versus U.S. Dollar
The same thing would apply to the British Pound here.
We’ve got very strong verified resistance at this high of 1.33, and we’re struggling to get above this. Now, a classic technical analysis that often fails, by the way, is people will say it’s a double top so it’s going lower. Well, just remember, guys, with a double top, there’s a flip side to that coin. This could also be considered a very bullish setup. So remember, use those key levels. We need to break above 1.33. I suspect we will do that on Monday and Tuesday. And then I further suspect we will have a violent reversal by the middle or the end of the week. So right now, when we look at this, the T-Cross Long, 1.3164, long well about that level. But when we bring in that predicted moving average by itself, you can see that this blue line is about to intersect with this verified resistance. So the market needs, this particular pair needs to get moving. 1.3249 is now the key pivot area, the long predicted. If we can’t hold above this, we are going to see a bigger move lower.
U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen
Now, as we watch the Dollar/Yen this week, I’ve had a very, very close eye on this Dollar/Yen, and it continues to move lower. Now, we are seeing, VantagePoint software has identified using the verified support zones, that we’ve got a bit of a problem here around 103.65. We’ve got three bars here that are not moving any lower. This is yet another warning sign potentially that the Dollar is getting ready to strengthen and gold is getting ready to move lower. So keep an eye not only on this verified low at 103.65, but also this one at 103.18. If we lose 103.18, guys, here, in my respectful opinion, we could go considerably lower potentially, I don’t know if we’re going to get all the way back down to the height of the COVID stuff at 101, but it is possible. So when we look for a potential reversal on here, what we would be watching very closely is, again, bringing in that blue line, the predicted moving average by itself, and getting closer to the actual price action. 104.07, we’re closing at 103.82.
So, again, this is how we get close to the flame here. We can straddle these things, putting limit orders just above this blue line, or you can also see how VantagePoint has got real tricky here by putting that clouded shade over top of here, and that’s where that T-Cross Long is. So, once again, if we start pushing and closing above this blue line, then that would be a trigger probably that gold is going to go lower and the Dollar is at least going to have a pause, the Dollar weakness will pause. So watch that level very closely. Again, another tricky way to play that is simply putting limit orders up around 104.20, 104.25. If it breaks above that level, the long order kicks in and up the market goes. So, again, this is letting the market come to you instead of chasing price. Now, with our three main equity-based currencies, that’s the Aussie, the New Zealand, and the CAD, they need the S&P 500 to continue to advance.
U.S Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
If the S&P 500 cannot advance, then U.S.-Canada will not go lower. It will actually go higher. Aussie-U.S. will turn around and go lower. New Zealand-U.S. will turn around and go lower. They’re dependent on that risk on environment, but I’m giving everybody a heads up. You can message me on, I almost said Trader Planet, excuse me, you can message me on the VantagePoint AI YouTube channel here. Tell me how things are going in your particular country. In Canada, it is not going well. Despite the nonsense that came out of the U.N. the other week saying Canada has handled the COVID better than anybody else, that is a completely false statement that they made. The death rate in Canada is twice that of the U.S. We have lower cases, because we only have 33 million people versus 355 million in the U.S. So Canada has not handled this well. We did not shut down international travel, and our cases and death rates are spiking here considerably.
Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
So I don’t view that particularly good for the S&P 500 or the Canadian Dollar. So once again, our line in the sand here is that T-Cross Long at 1.3107. We want to watch this area very, very closely. If we break above that, a long will be in play. If we click on our F8, you can see that we’re closing above that long predicted, that predicted moving average pivot level. Above it, long. Below it, short, about 1.3083. If we hold and close above this level on Monday and on Tuesday, we are going to start moving higher. And I would guess that it would be at the very minimum back towards the 1.3172 high. But at this time, if oil goes lower with it, I can’t rule out a move back towards the 1.3389 level. Now, with the Aussie and the New Zealand, once again, we’re getting very, very toppy up here. That doesn’t mean we’re going to fail.
New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar
Watch the S&P 500. If it breaks back to the upside and everything’s good, we’re in a risk off environment, the Aussie will take out this level up here at 0.7339 in a heartbeat. But if the S&P starts tanking and gold starts moving lower, then that would be the trigger for Dollar strength and we would likely see a retracement next week back into this 0.7246. That’s a likely outcome at this time. You can see that we’re struggling to hold about this predicted moving average on its own. We’ve closed below it on Thursday. Friday, we’re basically closing rate on it. So very, very close here just the spread alone. One could interpret that as two days below that blue line you fire at will on shorts. But either way, it would appear a short is potentially building at 0.7339. We would assess the exact same thing with the New Zealand-U.S.
We’ve got a verified resistance zone sitting at 0.6914. We must push through this very, very quickly. My concern too is the T-Cross Long, 0. 6822. We’ve moved a considerable distance from that. But again, when we click on our F8 in our software, we want to get close to the all the action. All the action is clearly off of this VantagePoint blue line, this predicted moving average. When we start closing below this, guys, then we’re probably going to head back into this shaded green area down here, which would be down around 0.6810. There’s a very, very strong possibility that will happen, but it will be determined by an inner market correlation, that being the S&P 500. So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 23rd …