VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the Week of December 23rd, 2019
The VantagePoint AI Market Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for Equities, Commodities, and Forex Pairs.
Hello everyone and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of December the 23rd, 2019.
U.S Dollar Index
Now, to get started this week, we’re going to begin again, where we always do it, at that very important US dollar. Now, once again, as I had stated in last week’s Forex weekly outlook, that the dollar is likely to strengthen towards the end of the week. Again, that has come to fruition, but the dollar is not necessarily out of the woods here. We’ve got some verified resistance at or about the 97.40 that is proven to be very, very stiff resistance. But once again, we can see a false break on the downside, but that was not enough to trick the indicators in the VantagePoint software. Our medium-term crossing, our long-term predicted difference clearly warned us that the dollar was getting ready to strengthen.
Now, we pushed lower, again, based around some of the nonsense going on in the US with the impeachment and all this stuff. Of course, that’s very unlikely that the current US president is going to be impeached and the equity markets are a clear sign of that, basically, accelerating above the 3,200 mark. So when I’m looking at this right now, our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference, we’ve got our MACD crossing and our RSI above 50, but more importantly, breaking above 60, pointing towards further dollar strength. But again, when we look at this from VantagePoint, we can see that whenever our medium-term trend is weakening against our longer-term trend, that is indicative of a price reversal. When we look at the monthly cycles in the dollar, again, towards the end of the month and the first week of the new month, the dollar is usually strong.
Now, what I am seeing is a bit of a surprise is that gold is stubborn. It’s holding onto its gains, holding above the T-cross long, 1478. Now again, it’s unlikely that gold is going to advance next week or in the remainder of 2019. We’ll reassess gold as we go into the new year. This will be the final presentation for the year and again, we want to look at this very closely and say, “Okay, the dollar is strengthening. The equity markets are good,” so gold is not necessarily going to sell off but I don’t think it’s going to advance either.
The indicators from VantagePoint are starting to turn lower so I would look for, again, shorts are reasonable, but we want to let that come up towards the 1491 area.
Now again, looking at the S&P 500, the VantagePoint did a very, very good job on the call. You’ve probably heard numerous analysts out there saying the S&P 500 was going to sell-off to February and other things along that line. That did not come to fruition at all. We hit the verified zone, as identified in the VantagePoint software, at 3066. Our indicators were still pointing higher. We advanced, we’ve had multiple retracements, again, back down to that exact same level almost, at 3072, where most analysts said, again, we were going to move lower until February. The exact opposite has happened.
This is why when we’re using intermarket analysis-based software, looking at the correlation to 31 other markets, we usually have a very different viewpoint than what you’ll hear on TV or see in some of these websites. So for now, and for going into year-end, we’re looking for the S&P 500 to hold above 3164. As long as we’re holding above that level, then again, the primary trend is still up. Now, our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference to the downside, does suggest a move lower, but that is likely only corrective in nature at this particular time.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Now, with that likely corrective move lower on the equity markets, I don’t think we’re going to sell-off in the equity markets. We’re just going to correct lower. We can see that oil, again, a leading indicator, it’s starting to turn lower, our medium-term crossing our longterm predicted difference. The neural index is just now in agreement. That is signaling lower oil prices going into year-end here, or the probability. Now, you can see the RSI is pointing down. We never ever want to trade-off of this kind of a signal; overbought, oversold accumulation distribution. Very seldom is this type of a signal accurate. We need something more concrete to confirm shorts. When I look at this, I’m seeing, I’ve got some verified resistance up here, as we’ve moved into this red zone, identified in the VantagePoint software. Medium-term crosses the longterm trend to the downside and our neural index is now in agreement with a falling RSI. This is a warning that oil is likely getting ready to go lower.
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
Now, as we move into our main Forex pairs going into next week, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of volatility in the Forex market going into year-end. Again, liquidity usually dries right up, but again, as I warned in last week’s Weekly Outlook, that the euro needed to get back up above 1.112 and if it can’t, it is probably going lower. Once again, our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference, pointing that as the Euro was moving higher, the price may not be what it appears to be. And once again, this is the advantage of using the Vantagepoint AI and taking the correlation of those 31 other markets and of course, measuring two trends against each other, a medium-term and a longer-term. This warned us that we were moving lower. That’s come to fruition, but the euro also still has very formable support coming in at one 1.040. I do anticipate 1.040 will be tested earlier in the week and we may even be able to accelerate back into the 1.0981.
But the one thing you want to take notice here guys, the euro is not trending up or trending down. It is locked within a well-defined range by these verified zones. So we’ve come up, tested the top part of that zone. The normal course of action would be then to come down and test the lower part of the range, and that’s being confirmed, again, by those VantagePoint indicators.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Now, as we look at opportunity going into next week, we’ve got the US-Swiss Franc. We can see that again, we’ve got a classic bear trap that’s set up here. But once again, the medium-term crossing, the longterm predicted difference, when we get that in combination with the neural index, it’s very seldom wrong. I think currently around 80 to 87.4% accurate, so that is a buy signal forming. Our MACD is starting to turn higher. We’ve got a rising RSI, that was able to break above the 50 level. So once we break above 60 on the RSI, you’re likely going to see this pair accelerate back towards at least the VantagePoint T-cross long, which is at .9862. Now, if we can clear that level, that would open the door to a test to the most recent verified resistance zone and that area, of course, is at .9917. So a very strong possibility we can get to that level in the next few weeks.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now, as we look at pound-dollar, there’s certainly no love for the pound-dollar here. The conservatives won the election in the UK, but now old Boris here, he has the very difficult task of again, which a number of these articles have pointed out accurately, he has to come up with a trade deal with the European union within one year of January 1st. That is a very difficult task. So the pound feeling the heat here, but again, we’ve got solid verified support down here around the 1.2827 area. I would watch this area very closely, but again, when we’re looking at our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference with our neural index very accurately called this move lower. But again, I’m not overly convinced that we’re going to see a lot more selling from this particular point forward, so watch the levels between 1.3051 and again, this lower verified zone at 1.2827.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Now, as we look at the dollar-yen going into next week, we simply could not penetrate these VantagePoint verified resistance zones. The power of these zones simply does not lie. They look at price action, they gauge the market and they measure whether there’s enough strength to push through. So the fact that we’ve tested this thing one, two, three, four, five, six times, it tells me that we’re going to correct lower, but it’s not convincing me that the trend is going to reverse. I fully expect the equity markets to correct lower. That would mean dollar-yen would correct lower, but once that correction is finished, we’re likely to see them both go higher. So we’re going to watch this particular area right now, next week, of 109.14. If we can hold above 109.14, then that means the S&P 500 is likely to continue its advance and the dollar-yen and pairs like US-Swiss frank will follow. But if we have a big sell-off in the S&P, dollar-yen and US-Swiss franc will both move lower. So watch our main levels, but we do have a makeshift cell signal trying to form on this pink line crossing over the blue line. The neural index is already ahead of that, but the MACD is saying, “Look, we still may have some upside here and the RSI is holding firm.”
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD) & New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
Now with the Aussie-US and New Zealand-US next week, very little has changed, but what we can start to see here is that the market has sold off this verified zone near the .6930 area, come down, stopped exactly on the T-cross long, that’s identified as a major pivot area in the VantagePoint software, hit that level and then bounced off it and we’re advancing past that. So it didn’t just bounce off this level once here guys, it hit that to the number three days in a row and then it accelerated. So it does look like we have more strength than the Aussie currency, but again, we’ve got very significant resistance above the .69 level, so be very, very cautious up there.
When we look at New Zealand, we see a very similar picture. Resistance is formed now, as identified by the Vantagepoint AI. We’ve put a signal across here and a verified zone, that high coming in at .6635. This pair must break above this area before, in my respectful opinion, the end of the first week of January or else it’s heading lower yet again. So when I look at the indicators, our medium-term crossing, our longterm predicted difference, the neural index is currently not in agreement and that’s the benefit of combining these powerful indicators to make sure we’re not jumping into something without checking all of our different indicators for confirmation. So right now, we would be looking for the market.
If we click on our F8 in our VantagePoint software, you can see that we’re hugging the blue line. The long-predicted .6588, we’ve managed to close above there, but just barely. So if we’re breaking down below .6588, that could trigger a reversal, not just in New Zealand-US, but also in the Aussie-US.
So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of December, the 23rd, 2019.