VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the Week of November 25th, 2019
The VantagePoint AI Market Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for Equities, Commodities, and Forex Pairs.
Hello everyone. Welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 25th, 2019.
U.S Dollar Index
Now, to get started this week, we’re going, to begin with that very important US dollar index. Now, we can assess here that the dollar is making a comeback, yet again, we’ve got a new verified zone that’s formed down at the lower end of the current weekly range at approximately the 97.55 area. We’ve bounced off of this level, but we still have very strong resistance starting at again at this 98.30 level, and that goes all the way up into the 99 level, approximately the 99.30 is a major, major resistance area. These red areas are in most cases used as cell zones.
Now, the dollar predominantly strong at the end of the month and the first weekend of the new month, we can see it starting to recover again. Now, this is with some assistance from the Fed, the Fed refusing to basically what I’m hearing anyway is the best you can interpret what they’re saying is they’re refusing to cut rates any further than they’re basically on hold. So that’s giving the dollar a boost here also as it starts to extend. Now, the indicators are setting up for potentially stronger move on the dollar here.
Now in most cases with the US Thanksgiving, the week leading up to the US Thanksgiving is usually one of the most volatile weeks of the entire calendar year. So we want to be very, very cautious, but right now it would appear we have a biased for further US dollar strength, so that’s going to give a bit of makeup.
Longs will be a little tough on gold next week. I think we can anticipate gold coming down and retesting the lower end of this range probably around the 1445.00, 1450.00 But we’re looking for this level to hold. Now, we’ve retraced back to our key VantagePoint level this week and we simply were unable to break through that T cross long, that 1483.00. We failed three days in a row and now we’re starting to move lower.
So again, the market is not trending up or down. If anything, the trend is firmly upon gold, gold is up over 20% on the year, but again with the Fed flip-flopping between cutting rates and on hold, it’s causing some confusion for your bigger investors. But again, what we look for is for a breakdown either below this support level that’s coming in around 1445.00, 1450.00 Area or a break above the T cross long. I don’t believe we’re going to get that until probably into December here because again, this is a known period of US dollar strength.
Now, when we look at our stocks here, the stocks have taken a pause for the week. We finally have some resistance up here. That resistance coming in at 3132.00, Unable to penetrate through that level here.
Not surprisingly, the Fed has done nothing to help stocks last week. The US-China trade deal. In my respectful opinion, there isn’t one. I think both sides are just feeding rumors. Whenever the stocks get into trouble one side, either China or the US media comes out and says, “Well, state okay, we’ve got a big, the deal is going to be signed.” I’m not buying it. I am only shorting the equity markets.
Again, if you’re buying the S&P 500, you believe that the US and China will resolve all their issues. I’m not in that camp so right or wrong. The one thing I will point out here is that the medium term and long term predicted differences. The pink and blue line, which very accurately measure the strength of the medium-term trend, and the long-term trend, they refute after the initial crossover to the downside. This indicator has refused to cross back to the upside.
It’s those kinds of indicators we want to look for because basically this move from the 3020.00 To the 3120.00 Area is basically just all noise around the US-China trade deal. There’s going to be a deal. We’ve got a deal, we’re signing it. Oh, wait a minute. We don’t have a place to sign it so maybe we don’t have a deal. It’s phase one. It’s phase two. This is just a vicious circle here guys, but the longer we go without an actual deal here, the higher the probability that we have a major corrective move lower. I would be, I am in that camp. I’m looking for additional indicators. We can see our predicted MACD turning lower. The RSI is unwilling to break down below the 50 level. I do find that interesting here, but again, that’s why we use multiple indicators that are based around inner market correlations.
When we look at our main intraday pivot area, you can see if we’re using the blue line by itself. This key area is 3106.00, Now we’re closing 3111.00 But as you can see, if we start breaking down and closing below this blue line, that will signal a much bigger move lower.
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Now, oil has had a very choppy week, to say the least. Basically, again, only in my respectful opinion, I believe that they’re actually flushing out the longs and the shorts and that’s what a bar like this does. It flushes it out, but if you’re using the VantagePoint software, you’re looking at the T cross long, 56.64 that area did not break down. We held there. Now, we did make a big push down on Wednesday but we recovered and got back up. But once again here guys, we are not able to close two days in a row above this verified high which is 58.17. So if oil is really going to go higher guys, we have to break free and clear a 58.17 and get this thing moving.
Okay, now with Bitcoin for next week, we can expect Bitcoin to likely move lower. But again, we are coming into a known verified zone here. This zone, it’s actually quite large. When we look at this and come back over a nine-month period, we can see that this particular area down here coming in around this 7133.00 And then we have additional support down at the low of a 5052.00. But the one thing I will point out, even at the current price where Bitcoin is right now, it’s still up almost 200% on the year. And again, these are things we want to take notice of. So essentially even at this current price, Bitcoin, the yearly opening price, I believe around 3,700.00 Is literally doubled and at one point it actually tripled on the year. It’s been a very, very good investment in 2019 regardless of what people, everybody has their opinion on Bitcoin here guys. But the reality is it’s had a very, very good year. So we don’t want to discount things like that.
Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)
Now, as we start to move into our main Forex payers, once again, in the many years that I’ve been in the industry, I have seen that the Euro, usually there’s a big move in the Euro on the Thanksgiving weekend, the US Thanksgiving weekend. So right now you can see that we’ve hit, we’ve tried to complete a crossover, we’ve moved higher, but we have formed yet another verified zone at the 1.1090 area.
So right now I would not anticipate a great week coming forward for the Euro because we’re also coming into again that period of known dollar strength. Combine that with falling gold prices guys, and you’ve probably got a Euro short that by the end of the week we could be probably back down around the 1.0941, maybe even lower to the actual bottom part of the range, which is currently at 1.0879, but just remember here guys, this is not trending up or down.
We are playing inside a broader range. We buy the bottom, we sell the top, that’s what we do. And then we use the VantagePoint indicators to identify what’s happening inside of this particular range. So right now where the Euro is right now, we are smack dead in the middle of this range, one of the most dangerous places to trade this. Okay. And the reason I say it’s dangerous because this is where a lot of indecision happens. So we like to let it move a little bit lower if we’re going to buy it and let it move a little bit higher if we’re going to sell it. But right now for next week, the biased is lower. And as you can see by the predicted RSI, momentum is building to the downside.
U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Now, when we look at US-Swiss Franc, again, if Euro US is moving lower US-Swiss Franc is likely moving higher.
But again, we’ve got very, very significant resistance up to the 1.0027 level. This pair is not been able to hold the above parody. And if the equity markets crash, which we anticipate they will and if the S&P 500 is going to crash it, it is going to be next week. Okay guys, this coming week. So if that happens it may be very difficult for US-Swiss Franc to move higher. So right now the biased is higher but again I would be strongly advised to at least lock in profit as we move closer to the high of 1.0027, but the indicators, again the RSI is moving into heavily overbought territory. So the probability that we have a big move higher on this remains my optimism on a big rally on US-Swiss Franc to the upside remains heavily, heavily guarded.
British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)
Now, with the British Pound US dollar next week, I believe the pound could turn around next week and the level I’m watching here very closely is the lower end of this verified zone. That’s coming in at 1.2768. I think that longs will still work here guys, even with the dollar strength because I believe the UK election is going to favor the British Pound.
We’ve moved above the yearly opening price in the British pound, but again a little bit more to the downside. This is the area you want to watch very closely. Again, 1.2751, 1.2768 if that level continues to hold here, guys, you want to get longs into the market very quickly. If we break down below 1.27 then we’re likely we’re going to, the range will stay in place. Now, it does look very attractive for a bigger short here, but again, be very careful around this 1.2760 area.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Now, with the US Japanese Yen, as you can see a wall of resistance up here. This has been very, very good shorts here. We’ve been doing this for what feels like months, doesn’t it? Anywhere around this 108.50, 109,00 109.20 shorting anywhere in that area has worked very well.
But as you can see the medium-term crossing, the long-term predicted difference with the neural index is warning us to be careful. So what I would like to see here for next week guys is a breakdown below 107.89 but going into a period of dollar strength, I believe that this level here coming in around 108.24 is likely going to hold. The only thing that could trigger a violent selloff on this pair, the same as US-Swiss Franc, is if the equity markets crash.
So if you’re trading this pair, be very cautious and keep a very, very close eye on the S&P. If the S&P 500 is going higher, usually dollar-yen is going higher. Usually, US-Swiss Franc is going higher. But if the equity markets come under heavy selling pressure next week, then money is going to go into risk-off currencies. That would be the yen, the Swiss Franc, and indirectly, believe it or not, the US dollar. But again, the key thing is guys know your levels.
U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
Now, as we move into our three main commodity currencies, again, the US CAD has approached this major resistance area that we talked about in last week’s Forex Weekly Outlook. This level around 1.3345 but the area’s held. Again on the first pass and we’ve actually formed a new verified resistance zone, which is coming in around 1.3327. So this area between 1.3327 and 1.3345 is a pretty big level here. Okay, guys. So that’s what we got to watch. So if we come back into a nine-month period, we then have an additional level up to 1.3380. If we lose 1.3380 there really is not much resistance between 1.3380 and the 1.3565 area.
So if gold breaks down, equities break down, oil moves lower, US Canada is absolutely going higher. Guys, that’s the Intermarket correlation. So right now, looking closely at the VantagePoint indicators, our medium-term crossing, our long-term predicted difference. You’ll see a very similar signal there to what I showed you guys here with the S&P 500. I believe that it’s just a waiting game. They’re trying to flush out the shorts by pushing it higher and then they’re just going to hammer this thing. So be careful of this. Okay, just watch this pair. But the main thing right now, guys, this area between 1.3340 and 1.3380 that’s a very big area.
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD) & New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)
Now with Aussie US and New Zealand US next week, once again here guys, Aussie US unable to break through this key VantagePoint level, we’ve now formed a verified zone, raid off that T cross long. Very impressive, 0.6840. Aussie going down basically the entire week. But again, we’ve got to use multiple indicators that are based around inner market correlations. I’m not really interested in accumulation or distribution or any of this kind of stuff. I’m more interested in the direct inner market correlations and price action. The verified zones where I can see where the market is struggling, either buying or selling any asset class, whether it be equities, currencies, commodities. These price action usually has a very strong influence on a large part of traders in the market.
So again, we’ll watch this low end of this at 0.6770 if we lose that level then we are coming down lower. Now, I think that if we are looking for shorts here guys, though I think that New Zealand represents a better opportunity. The Aussie’s has been moving lower all week where New Zealand is actually held its ground, but you can see a fresh sell signal on New Zealand US, and again, when we combine that with the verified zones that high coming in at 0.6841 and the additional resistance that’s coming in at 0.6465. Very significant resistance up here that we’re unable to break as the market starts to move into this red zone, you can see that the sellers are camped out waiting here for this thing, right? Because these traders, much like myself, we don’t chase, we try not to chase price. We let it come to us. That’s the benefit of using verified zones with the core VantagePoint indicators, the medium term, crossing the long-term predicted difference, the neural index. The predicted RSI with a 0.6040 split. These are indicators that are leading. They’re going to tell us what is likely going to happen.
But again, with these verified zones, you can see that the market was only able to penetrate it one day and then the next three days we go lower. But the level we also need to be careful of next week is 0.6386, the T cross long, right? We need to hold above that level, but if we start breaking down below that level, then we shouldn’t have too much difficulty here guys moving back down to the 0.6320 area.
So what that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 25th, 2019.