Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook for the Week of April 8th, 2019

The Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook is designed to help traders.  It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil The Stock Market and the Major Pairs.

Rumors continued to swirl around a potential Trump-Xi summit, but no date has yet been announced. Traders would view a summit as a sign that a trade deal was highly likely.  This is the key story affecting equities and filtering through forex as well.

The British pound is still digesting all Brexit concerns.  Those are the two major news stories affecting the markets and traders.

Narrow ranges in the currencies with strong overhead resistance and solid long term support indicate a very cautious trading style is warranted. Volatility is low, and as such opportunities aren’t in abundance.

The US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index tends to form in cycles, beginning and the end of the month. The Vantagepoint indicators are mixed.  Medium term trend is weakening.  Looks like labor market is flattening out here.  Vantagepoint indicators show cyclical tendencies but are mixed.  A very cautious stance is warranted.  The successful trend has been looking to sell dollars around the middle month and we think that will continue moving forward.  We are waiting for the indicators to line up.

The Gold Market

Gold is usually the benefactor of Dollar weakness.  Gold looks like it is forming a bottom.  Short term resistance at $1285 and short term support at $1265.  We urge caution in this market.  Upside recovery is technically in place with a rising predictive RSI.

Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs

S&P 500

2934 is where the HEAVY resistance lies.  The SELL ZONE going back historically is right at 2940.  Keep in mind this rally is 9 years old.  The Predictive RSI is approaching overbought area.  The market appears to have factored in the positives surrounding a possible US/CHINA trade deal. The Federal Reserve is on pause but that does not mean that will result as an overall positive for the equities markets.

Crude Oil

Minor short term SELL starting to form as the market is very overbought on the predictive RSI.  This market has been following the equities markets.  We are at a major resistance area.

Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)

Medium Trend is down.  This trend is also weakening.  1.1176 shows double bottom.  There will be a strong bias to the upside since the down trend is weakening.  A very cautious stance is warranted.  Major buyers are sitting underneath the market.

What do the indicators say?

Predictive RSI is pointing higher.  Neural Net indicator is green pointing higher and predictive moving average is forming a buy.

U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)

No strong move one way or another.  This is a difficult environment highlighted by narrow ranges.

What do the indicators say?

Predictive RSI has turned lower for the short term.  Neural Net is also negative.  Short term trend has been positive.  Extreme caution is urged in this type of environment.  Be nimble and wait for a better opportunity.

British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)

The Pound/Dollar is all over the map and mostly failing. We’re at the mercy of Brexit.  Very volatile wild swings.  Trend is lower.

What do the indicators say?

The VantagePoint predictive RSI has formed a bottom.  Predictive moving average is pointing lower as is the NeuralNet indicator.

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

The Dollar-Yen is following the pattern of the USD/CHF.  We are watching the pivot area at 110.68.  If stocks can recover this pair will follow the stock indexes.

What do the indicators say?

The Vantagepoint PRSI is pointing lower.  Neural net is also red..  The bias is lower.  Traders are selling as this market approaches the resistance zone.   Lots of stops underneath the market.

The Commodities Currencies

U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

Resistance very strong overhead at 1.3550.  Support at 1.3296.  Watch the Vantagepoint indicators closely.  Major resistance at 1.35. and 1.3663.  We think stocks will have to move lower to trigger a substantial move here.

What do the indicators say?

The Vantagepoint PRSI is at 41.8 indicating short term pressure.  Predictive Moving average and NeuralNet is also negative.

Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)

7140 overhead resistance.  .7040 is support.  These narrow markets require you to be nimble and careful. Short term predictive moving average and NeuralNet are positive.  PredictiveRSI is also pointing higher.  Next major resistance is around .7290.

New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)

The market has given up 110 pips in the past 8 sessions when the last sell signal occurred.    RSI is oversold.  Tight ranges lead us to believe that this market will make a move when equities make their big move one way or another.