Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook for the Week of March 18th, 2019

The Vantagepoint Forex Weekly Outlook is designed to help traders. It’s important to remain aware of correlations in the global markets. Traders can become more profitable if they know how to get ahead of the trends. Utilizing the predictive indicators in VantagePoint Software can help traders find the right trades and the right times. Above all, traders know when to enter and exit those trades for maximum profit. Let’s look at the charts for the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil The Stock Market and the Major Pairs.


The important currency pairs are rangebound and have been for quite some time.  The U.S. Dollar Index is the backbone of forex trading.  The event risk in this market is the FOMC meeting on March 19. Sideways markets going into the FOMC markets highlights the risk.

The US Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index has been rangebound for many, many weeks.  The Dollar weakens going into mid-month and strengthens towards the end of the month. For the last four months when you look at the Dollar as measured against all of the major crosses you will see that it has been in a relatively narrow trading range.  The Vantagepoint indicators are pointing lower for the dollar but traders need to be nimble in this market as the trading ranges have been narrow. We are anticipating support at the 95.82 zone on the Dollar Index.

The Gold Market

Gold is considered to be the currency of last resort and the ultimate store of value.  When we look at Gold for clues we also see a market that is in an uptrend but struggling to maintain its upward bias.  There is very strong support in Gold at 1284 with very strong resistance at $1349. Currently, the trend in gold is down and we are paying attention to how the market reacts as it approaches the lower end of its channel.  During the last 5 days, the trend has been sideways.  Over the last month, the trend has been very slightly down.  While the last three months, the trend has been very marginally higher.  Traders are looking to buy weakness as long as the trend indicators remain positive.

Forex Weekly Outlook for Major Pairs

We analyze price action, as well as news events and/or risk off scenarios. All those play a role in market movement. VantagePoint Software reviews the Forex Weekly Outlook each Monday.

S&P 500

If you look at the S&P 500 over the last several months we see a lot of overhead resistance.  The market has rallied nicely off the December lows.  But it also has been unable to move higher than the highs from last October.  The market has the feel of the classic bull trap from a clear charting perspective.  However, the VP indicators have been long since early January.  Traders are cautious as we approach recent highs.  We expect additional volatility at these levels.

Crude Oil

Is following the Equity markets.  The recent rallies in Crude Oil have put it at a significant resistance area.  The indicators are positive but the wall of resistance overhead is also forcing traders to be extremely cautious.

Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)

Desperately seeking direction at this level. 1.1419 is the high and current resistance. Current support is the low posted 8 sessions ago at 1.1176. The trend is up and traders are expecting volatility from the FOMC meeting.

What do the indicators say?

The trend is UP with resistance at 1.1419.  Traders need to be extremely nimble going into the FOMC and we are expecting profit taking as it approaches the resistance area.

U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)

If the Stock Market rally is for real we would expect this Swiss Franc to move lower and for the Dollar to move lower. At the present time, we cannot make this conclusion.

What do the indicators say?

The NeuralNet indicator is negative while the predictive indicator is positive but struggling to retain its bullish luster.  Watch this market very closely as it could be the leading correlation if the S&P500 is going to move lower.  If the market cannot move higher it will retrace back to .9979.

British Pound/U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD)

The key market event is the news on BREXIT and we anticipate that this will create much additional volatility.  This Market is approaching recent high and encountering a lot of profit taking.

What do the indicators say?

The Vantagepoint ai key level is at 1.3380.   The Predictive Trend Indicator is positive as is the NeuralNet Indicator.  Be nimble.  Be cautious.  Traders are buying weakness in this market and if new highs are made there is a lot of upside room for the market to run.

U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

The Dollar-Yen is moving sideways. Narrow ranges. The Predictive Trend Indicator is struggling and the NeuralNet indicator is positive. Narrow ranges are the first warning to traders to be nimble and careful. New highs will signal a run to the 113 area. The market has been rangebound.

What do the indicators say?

The VantagePoint key level is at 111.18 is the key support level in this market.   Further support at 110.83.

The Commodities Currencies

U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

This is a very data heavy week for the Canadian Dollar. Retail Sales, ADP Non-Farm, CPI, Wholesale Sales, and The Annual Budget Release. All of these reports will provide reasons for volatility.

What do the indicators say?

The Vantagepoint predictive trend indicator is positive.  The critical level at 1.3318.  Must break 1.3351 to indicate that it is moving higher.  Neural Net indicator is also positive.

Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD)

The Aussie Dollar is running into a huge amount of selling pressure and resistance at these levels around .7088. For the last four days the market has been unable to get through this important level.

What do the indicators say?

Price is at the Predictive Trend and NeuralNet Indicator is long.  With narrow ranges, anticipation is that breakouts in either direction are needed to create a good risk/reward trade. Predictive RSI is struggling to show any real momentum.

New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar (NZD/USD)

The market here is stalling out at .6873 and .6909.  The sideways range has lasted for the last two months.  Traders watch this market and the AUSSIE for how Gold and the Stock Market will responding moving forward over the next week.

What do the indicators say?

Price is currently above the predictive moving average and the NeuralNet indicator is also positive.  But with the narrow trading ranges, traders are looking for a  breakout to determine a trend with a better risk/reward ratio.