Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
VantagePoint AI Market Outlook — Week of June 8, 2026
US Dollar
Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of June 8th, 2026. Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do, with that U.S. dollar. So, it’ll be a relatively brief outlook this week because it’s pretty straightforward. We’ve got a strong payroll number that’s putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
When the U.S. dollar goes higher, just about everything else goes lower, and that’s what we’re seeing right now. The equity market selling off, gold moving lower, silver, Bitcoin — all of these things are being affected by that dollar strength. Now, in most cases, and in my respectful opinion only, the dollar does not hold this strength for any length of time, rate hike or no rate hike. So, again, in most cases, by Tuesday or Wednesday after the non-farm payroll number, the week after the non-farm payroll number, the dollar starts giving that strength back.
So, we’ll watch for that very closely. But for now, I can assess, looking at this, that we’re above the calendar yearly opening price. We’re well within the 52-week highs of the U.S. Dollar Index. Again, the U.S. Dollar Index takes a broader look at the U.S. dollar against emerging market currencies. It’s not just weighted to the euro like the dollar index.
So, again, a very powerful ETF that VantagePoint is forecasting for. Again, when we look at the dollar bear fund, it’s broken down below its yearly opening price, and it’s starting to move towards its 52-week low at 17.87. The indicators are supportive of that. They’ve been supportive of this weakness in the dollar bear fund for a couple of weeks now. So, again, it shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but it is a bit of a surprise either way that that jobs number in the U.S. was so strong while at the same time the unemployment rate didn’t go lower.
I found that very interesting. So, we’ll see what the market thinks of that next week.
Gold
With gold prices, gold pressured its calendar yearly opening price again. That could bring into play the lower end of the 52-week range, but I don’t think we’re going to come down quite that low. So, again, right now the indicators in VP are very bearish. We’re below the TCross Long 45.11. We’re starting to push down below the calendar yearly opening at 43.59.
So, a bearish week is likely ahead for gold. But again, we really do need to see how the market’s going to digest that entire labor report, and we’ll have more data coming in. It’s also very important to point out that labor report is lagging by a month. So, the upward revisions were good. So, for now, the dollar remains in the driver’s seat.
SPY / U.S. Equities
So, with that, that’s putting downward pressure on the SPY. Prior to the announcement this week, the SPY made a new 52-week high, coming in at about 760. But again, we were not able to sustain that solely based on that payroll number. Now, the market believes the Fed is going to have to hike, not cut. So, that again should take the wind out of most of your global indices, at least in the short-to-medium term.
So, again, we remain firmly up on the year, 685. When we look at the Russell, seeing the exact same thing after we made a new 52-week high. We’re pushing back from that. But again, when we look at the core VP indicators, the MA Diff Cross — measuring the medium-term crossover against the long-term crossover — warned us at the beginning of the week that this likely was going to be the outcome.
Again, when you’re using intermarket technical analysis, it’s looking at multiple components, not just one singular indicator. So, again, this was warning me that probably that payroll number was going to be good.
Global X DAX ETF
Now, when we look at the Global X DAX ETF, same thing. The euro took a beating this week. When the euro sold off, it pulled the DAX down with it. But once again, that MA Diff Cross formed on Monday of this previous week, warning us that there was going to be a corrective move lower no matter what.
And if that payroll number came out bad, the DAX would go higher. The euro/U.S. forex pair would go higher. But it’s a fundamental event with that non-farm payroll, just like the Fed or the CPI data. So, that data point, now the market has to digest this. So, we have a medium-term crossover, but we don’t have a long-term one.
So, I just want to point that out.
Volatility Index ($VIX)
Now, when we look at the short-term VIX, once again, coming down, setting a new 52-week low, but it’s starting to move higher. So, again, the VIX is about 95% positively correlated to the dollar index. So, this coming week, I suspect the VIX will move higher. It’s a question: can it hold on to those gains, retake the calendar yearly opening price at 20.25–20.23, or will there be more data coming out that doesn’t support the U.S. dollar?
But this will be a very strong test this coming week for the equity market over the next several weeks, actually, for the global equity markets.
Bitcoin
Now, Bitcoin again has never been positive on the year, guys. That’s the first thing I want to point out. So now we’re making a new, I believe this is a new 52-week low. That’s coming in at 59,618. So, once again, I believe that Bitcoin will follow its normal patterns. It’s perfectly normal for Bitcoin to be going lower in this calendar year because you have three years up and then a down year.
So, this is that down year. The cycle has been going on for many years now, guys. So, I suspect that Bitcoin will reverse higher, but that’s probably not going to be until closer to September. So, again, how much more downward pressure is there? Well, the neural index is down, but the neural index strength is actually pointing up.
So, again, probably a strong push to the downside on Monday, but then watch for a potential reversal, okay? Because, again, that neural index strength, as you can see, is a very different indicator than the neural index. I want them both to be in agreement, and right now they’re not.
U.S. Oil ($USO)
Now, U.S. oil. Again, very little progress being made with the U.S.-Iran war. The MA Diff Cross and VP, the pink line over the blue line, is warning of additional strength in this. So, again, if nothing is settled with this between the U.S., Iran, and Israel, then oil likely will move back up, but it’s a very, very high-risk long at these particular levels.
So, again, the MA Diff Cross, one could argue, is completed. And if we can’t get over that TCross Long at 137.75, then we go lower. So, again, watch that level very, very closely next week.
Euro versus US Dollar ($EUR/USD)
Now, when we look at some of our main forex pairs here, guys, I don’t think we need to go through all of them. I’m going to hit four of the main ones that really matter. And the euro is the key one. Now, the euro — it is perfectly normal for the euro/U.S. pair to be going lower this week, for stocks to be going lower this week, the week of the non-farm payroll numbers.
So, again, the 52-week low on the euro is 1.1372. I would say that is a viable target for next week. But I also think that level could hold if more data coming through doesn’t support a rate hike, or even staying on hold and maybe even a cut. I think the cut — the market’s not going to be looking at that right now. But again, we’ve got to get the data, not lagging data.
So, again, the critical level you’ll watch for next week: TCross Long: 1.1630. Long Predicted: 1.1595. Again, this is not a medium-term crossover setup. These are predicted moving averages by themselves, and they’re being used as pivot levels.
So, again, a pivot level is when the market comes back up, touches something, and then follows its primary move. The euro/U.S., the primary trend is down, guys, and it’s been down for a while now. We’ve tried to push above that very important yearly opening price at 1.1732, and we just have not been able to hold above that particular level. So, more downward pressure on the euro is likely.
But again, be very cautious come Tuesday and Wednesday because, in most cases, any gains the dollar has made have already been baked into the price. Then shortly after the non-farm payroll number, we could see something reverse.
British Pound versus US Dollar ($GBP/USD)
Now, the British pound/U.S. dollar, another big player in the forex market. This is a very good technical setup to show you because I talk about the calendar yearly opening price, not just the 52-week high and low, but the year-to-date price. In order for this to be bullish or to be in an uptrend, we need to get above that yearly opening price. If we bought the pound/dollar on January 1st, then we are effectively losing money right now.
So again, there’s a lot of different ways people will try and sell us on how to identify a trend. This is the simplest way to do it, guys: Am I positive on the year? No, I’m not. Could I get positive on the year this past week? No. I’ve had multiple failures.
So every day as the market goes up, you sell it. Sell it. It’s a very repetitive process if you know your levels. That is the key thing I can tell you. So again, right now the indicators are pointing that there will be further downside.
US Dollar versus Japanese Yen ($USD/JPY)
Now, the dollar/yen. This one is going to be interesting next week. Once again, structurally speaking, we’re above the yearly, quarterly, and monthly opening prices. I can’t believe we’re back up at this 160 level again. But now, guys, is the carry trade back on?
Well, if it is, there’s two pairs that will be affected the most: dollar/yen and U.S. dollar/Swiss franc. So can the U.S. dollar/Swiss franc hold above its calendar yearly opening price? I think it’s safe to say the dollar/yen can. But this pair, too, is also a carry trade.
US Dollar versus Swiss Franc ($USD/CHF)
Meaning buying the dollar and selling the Swiss franc. Right now, it looks like the dollar is going to break higher against this. The idea here is traders will want to hold a long position. Even if they’re not making money on the trade, they’re getting paid very high swap rates to hold the dollar against the Swiss franc and against the Japanese yen.
So it’ll be a very, very interesting week ahead for the carry trade because if the market believes the Fed is going to be forced to hike, that will absolutely support the dollar against the yen and the Swiss franc.
US Dollar versus Canadian Dollar ($USD/CAD)
Now, the Canadian dollar here going into next week. The Canadian labor report was somewhat overshadowed by that strong U.S. report. But once again, it was a decent number coming out of Canada. But again, Canada has entered into a recession.
They have not entered into a technical recession because there is no such thing, guys. A recession is clearly defined, and it’s not a technical recession. Again, since Carney has come into power in Canada, three of those four quarters have been negative growth. So, two back-to-back, that meets the definition of a recession.
That could be why the market has shrugged off that rather strong Canadian labor report. So again, I believe that the upside on this particular pair could be limited. But if you have the talk of the Bank of Canada potentially having to cut rates and the Fed hiking rates, that could easily push us back to our 52-week high at 1.4140.
That right now would appear to be in the cards, but I also don’t think we’re going to break through that level. If we get up to that level, it would be a very good selling opportunity on this particular pair. The VP indicators right now are saying we are going higher.
Australian Dollar versus US Dollar ($AUD/USD)
Now, when we look at the Aussie and the Kiwi, the Aussie again is a high-yielding currency, so is the Kiwi. So maybe we don’t buy it against the U.S. dollar. Maybe we buy Aussie/Japan, New Zealand/Japan, Aussie/Swiss Franc, Aussie/New Zealand, Swiss Franc. That’s the carry trade I would kind of look at because those are high yielders.
But we don’t necessarily want to. If the VP indicators are saying that Aussie/U.S. and New Zealand/U.S. are going lower, then that’s fine. But that doesn’t mean that Aussie/Japan and Aussie/Swiss Franc are not very good long trades. New Zealand/Japan, New Zealand/Swiss Franc — we can do the carry trade on that side.
So, I believe those two pairs will do good next week.
Australian Dollar versus New Zealand Dollar ($AUD/NZD)
And I believe that Aussie/New Zealand will be the better of the two. Meaning that right now, with Aussie/New Zealand potentially getting ready to move higher, then that would support the Aussie currency more than the Kiwi.
So, we’ll have a very busy week ahead again, guys. But again, be very, very cautious to see if they continue to buy dollars by Wednesday of next week. So, with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of June 8th, 2026.
