Vantagepoint AI Blog

2026: Bullish, Bearish or Both?

Since 1990, the S&P 500 Index has told a very consistent story, even though the ride along the way has often felt anything but consistent.  First, the big picture. Roughly 8 out of every 10 years have been positive. That matters. It tells us that the long-term bias of the U.S. stock market is upward, even though the path is uneven and occasionally painful.  Across all the years in the dataset, the average annual return is about 12%. That number alone explains why equities remain such a powerful wealth-building tool over time. But averages hide important details, so let’s look under the hood.  The biggest up year in this period was 1995, when the market surged more than 37%. When the market goes up, it tends to go up decisively. In fact, the average gain in up years is roughly 19%, which tells us that strength, when it appears, usually persists.  On the downside, the worst year was 2008, when the market fell about 36%. Down years are fewer, but they can be sharp. The average loss in down years is about 15%. That asymmetry is important. Losses are less frequent than gains, but they demand respect when they occur.

Why The Brady Bunch Makes Modern Economics Look Ridiculous

Housing used to be the byproduct of a functioning economy. Now it’s a luxury good, priced like one, financed like one, and defended as one. And yet we’re told to celebrate growth as if rising output automatically translates into rising lives. It doesn’t. It just means more money is changing hands, often to solve problems that didn’t exist when money still knew how to behave.

Narratives Are Cheap. Trends Are Profitable. Know The Difference.

Benchmarks provided the answer. Without them, even strong returns risked becoming optical illusions. A stock that rose 10% in 2025 could appear successful in isolation yet still represent a missed opportunity if its sector or the broader market advanced twice as much. The S&P 500 and major sector indexes served as the market’s scorecard, revealing where capital was truly being rewarded. Traders who anchored their decisions to relative performance gained an objective lens through which to assess strength, avoid laggards, and stay aligned with institutional behavior. Those who did not were left navigating the year without a map.

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